The folks at Quinnipiac University released a new poll reinforcing recent surveys of the U.S. Senate race: Gov. Charlie Crist, considered hopelessly behind in a two-way race with former House Speaker Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, has become the frontrunner in the race since he became an independent.
The new Q Poll shows Crist with 37 percent, followed by 32 percent for Rubio and 17 percent for Jeff Greene, whom the pollsters says is now the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. If U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek wins the Democratic primary, the poll said, Crist’s lead would be 39 percent to 33 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Meek.
Crist’s lead — about what it was in the June 9 Q Poll — owes to his appeal to independents and Democrats, the survey showed. If the election were today, he’d get half the independent voters, about 20 percent of Republicans and about 40 percent of Democrats. One factor: his 53 – 37 percent voter approval of his job as governor.
“There has been little movement in the Senate race over the past two months. Gov. Charlie Crist’s small lead comes as neither Democrat breaks 20 percent in the trial heats. If that were to be the case in November, Gov. Crist would have a very good chance to win. But if the Democratic nominee can move into the mid-to-high 20s, Crist’s chances decrease substantially,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The new poll also shows a tight three-way race for governor. Democrat Alex Sink slightly trails either of the Republican candidates, former health-care executive Rick Scott or Attorney General Bill McCollum. Scott gets 29 percent to Sink’s 27 percent, with independent Bud Chiles receiving 14 percent. If McCollum wins the GOP primary, he would get 27 percent to 26 percent for Sink and 14 percent for Chiles.
The poll showed that numbers for both Scott and McCollum have dropped as they have bombarded each other with a combined total of $38 million in television ads, most of them negative. The June survey gave McCollum a 37 – 29 percent favorable rating; it’s since dropped to 43 – 27 percent unfavorable. Scott’s rating has gone from 31 – 22 percent favorable to a 29 – 30 percent split.
Sink gets a 25 – 15 percent favorability, but 58 percent of voters continue to say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
“When candidates throw mud at each other, they can’t avoid being splattered also… [T]he beneficiary of the millions spent on negative ads Attorney General Bill McCollum and Rick Scott have been airing at this point is State CFO Alex Sink. Whether that will remain the case once the Republican nomination is settled we’ll see,” said Brown.
Other findings:
– President Barack Obama’s approval remains negative, 46-50 percent. But that’s a slight improvement from the negative 40 – 54 percent rating in Quinnipiac’s June 9 poll.
– Florida voters would support 62 – 34 percent the idea of a state constitutional amendment to ban drilling within 10 miles of the Florida coast — an amendment the Legislature refused to put on the ballot despite Crist’s urging — and say 72 – 24 percent they want a referendum on the ballot on that question.
– U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a 10-year Democratic incumbent, gets a 46 – 30 percent job approval rating, while voters disapprove 25 – 21 percent of the job Sen. George LeMieux is doing. Crist appointed LeMieux to serve out the rest of Mel Martinez’ term.
The poll interviewed 969 Florida voters from July 22 – 27. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
